Local election coalitions are likely to decide who runs many of South Africa’s towns and cities, long after the last ballot is counted and voters have had their say.

But in councils where no party wins more than half the seats, the final decision will be made in negotiating rooms.

An estimated 14.5 million people voted in the local government elections, including about 1.5 million special votes.

The Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) hopes to declare final results by the weekend.

Where the count stands

By 07:53 on Thursday, 5 November, about 19% of voting districts had been counted, or 4 427 of 23 696.

None of the eight metros had been decided.

Early national results on the proportional representation (PR) ballot had the ANC on about 32%, narrowly ahead of the DA on about 31%.

These early figures are expected to shift, as many districts in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal had not yet reported.

A projection by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) put the ANC at about 32% and the DA at about 26% in the final tally.

Why local election coalitions matter

A hung council is one where no single party wins more than half the seats. The parties must then form a coalition, or work together on a vote-by-vote basis, to elect a speaker and a mayor.

The 2021 elections produced a record 66 hung councils out of 213.

That was more than double the 27 hung councils after the 2016 elections.

The metros that could have hung councils

The stakes are highest in the eight metros, which together account for about 40% of South Africa’s 29.2 million registered voters.

Ipsos predicted that coalitions would be needed in most of them.

Pre-election polling suggested several of the country’s biggest cities could end up hung.

These are polls, not results:

  • Johannesburg: Ipsos had the DA on 30%, the ANC on 27%, the MK Party on 12% and ActionSA on 11%. No party was near a majority.
  • Tshwane: Ipsos had the DA three points ahead of the ANC. The city is currently run by a 10-party coalition.
  • Ekurhuleni and Nelson Mandela Bay: both were hung after 2021.
  • eThekwini: Ipsos had the MK Party on 47%, close to but below a majority.
  • Cape Town: Ipsos had the DA on 51%, a majority but narrower than the 58% it won in 2021.

What happens next for local election coalitions

Under the Municipal Structures Act, each new council must hold its first meeting within 14 days of the IEC declaring the results.

At that meeting, councillors elect a speaker, who then oversees the election of a mayor.

That gives parties roughly two weeks to strike deals.

If a council fails to constitute itself, it can be dissolved and fresh elections held within 90 days.

A Coalitions Bill, aimed at making coalition governments more stable, was tabled in Parliament in August.

But Parliament has confirmed it will not be finalised in time for these elections, so the existing rules, including the 14-day deadline, still apply.

What it means for residents

Coalition talks are not just politics. Unstable coalitions after 2016 and 2021 led to deadlocks in some councils, making it harder to pass budgets and appoint officials.

That can slow down basic services such as water, electricity and refuse removal.

Residents can follow official results as they are declared on the IEC’s website.

DO COALITIONS WORK IN YOUR MUNICIPALITY? 

Let us know in the comments below …