Republicans tried to save their House majority with a bold wave of mid-cycle redistricting. It failed in spectacular fashion on Tuesday.
Why it matters: Republicans not only fell short of winning seats in several districts they redrew to favor their candidates, they put some GOP incumbents in danger of losing by spreading their support thin.
- Rep. Scott DesJarlais (R-Tenn.), who has mostly won landslide reelections since entering Congress in 2010, trailed his Democratic opponent by 200 votes, according to the Tennessee secretary of state's unofficial final results.
- Republican state legislators carved up his district in an effort to shore up neighboring Republicans, making his district nearly 20 percentage points less GOP-leaning.
State of play: While Republicans succeeded in picking up a Democratic district in Tennessee to make up for that loss, they largely failed to pick up the seats they tried to make reliably Republican in other states.
- Florida: Republicans are set to go 0-for-4 in redistricted seats, failing to unseat Democratic Reps. Darren Soto, Kathy Castor and Jared Moskowitz, or capture a new seat that Democrat Pia Dandiya won.
- Texas: Republicans are set to narrowly win just one of the five districts they redrew heavily in their favor, with Democrats easily hanging onto several Rio Grande Valley and San Antonio-area seats.
- Ohio: Democratic Reps. Greg Landsman and Marcy Kaptur held on despite Republicans drawing them into more hostile territory.
- Alabama: Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures is also set for a comfortable win in a district Republicans had planned to fall into their hands.
- Louisiana: The district of retiring Democrat Rep. Cleo Fields, which Republicans made significantly more GOP-leaning will go to a December runoff between Democrat Patricia Moore and Republican Gabe Firment.
One of the most stunning results of the night was Democrats' multiple apparent victories in North Carolina, where House candidates were boosted by Sen-elect Roy Cooper's strong performance at the top of the ballot.
- Democrats are on track to flip several seats that were rated as likely or even solidly Republican by Cook Political Report, likely unseating Republican Reps. Addison McDowell, Brad Knott and Tim Moore.
- They are also likely to unseat Rep. Richard Hudson, the chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee. Virginia Foxx, who chairs the House Rules Committee, is behind by about 100 votes.
- In all, the state's House delegation could go from a 10-4 Republican majority to a 9-5 Democratic one.
Between the lines: The North Carolina result is the product of a brutal 2024 gerrymander in which GOP state legislators diluted most solidly Republican districts to draw out several House Democrats.
- They redistricted again last year, only to put Democratic Rep. Don Davis in more hostile territory.
- GOP Rep. Greg Murphy — whose district was packed with more Democratic voters to make Davis' seat redder — barely hung on Tuesday night.
- Former Democratic Rep. Kathy Manning, who was one of the Democrats drawn out in 2024, told Axios that Tuesday's result was "absolutely" a result of GOP redistricting backfiring.
The bottom line: Republicans "tried to break the laws and go against these norms in your massive authoritarian power grab," DNC vice chair Shasti Conrad told Axios.
- "How did that turn out?"