‘It’s a slow-moving tsunami’ — IMF chief warns AI could threaten employment for young workers

 

Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), says artificial intelligence (AI) could augment, downgrade, or eliminate about 40 percent of jobs globally.

 

Georgieva spoke on Monday during a panel discussion at the 2026 IMF-World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, Thailand.

 

The IMF managing director described AI as a “slow-moving tsunami” for the labour market, saying its effects are already becoming visible in advanced economies.

 

 

“The impact over time on jobs globally we estimate to be around 40 percent jobs either augmented, or downgraded, or eliminated,” she said.

 

Georgieva said IMF research in the United States found that about 10 percent of jobs already require AI skills, which tend to attract higher pay.

 

She said routine and repetitive jobs are shrinking, while employment is increasing in areas such as data-centre construction and services.

 

 

According to the IMF chief, the net employment impact in the area covered by the US study was positive, but much of the growth was concentrated in lower-paying jobs.

 

Georgieva said young people are particularly vulnerable because entry-level positions often provide the first opportunity to gain experience and progress in a career.

 

“Normally, they would get into these routine, repetitive jobs and then grow up the ranks. But if they’re gone, young workers could find it harder to establish themselves in the labour market,” she said.

 

She urged governments to study changes in employment patterns, reform education systems, and promote lifelong learning to help workers adapt to new demands.

 

 

“We cannot today imagine what exactly the world of work will be five years from now, but we can be disciplined and carefully assess what is happening, and then draw lessons. But most importantly, act on them,” she said.

 

Georgieva also warned that AI could complicate government revenue collection if economic activity shifts away from labour towards capital.

 

She said governments need to consider how they would generate sufficient revenue to help societies adapt to changes in the world of work.

 

The IMF chief said AI’s impact would vary across economies.

 

 

According to Georgieva, estimates suggested that 60 percent of jobs in advanced economies are exposed to AI, compared with 40 percent globally and 26 percent in low-income countries.

 

‘SMALL AI TO BOOST JOBS, PRODUCTIVITY IN DEVELOPING ECONOMIES’

 

 

Also speaking, Ajay Banga, the World Bank president, said small AI is promoting the use of locally adapted artificial intelligence tools to improve productivity and support job creation in developing economies.

 

Banga said small AI applications could help address practical challenges in healthcare, agriculture, and other sectors, particularly in places where access to advanced technology and specialist services remains limited.

 

 

“The opportunity from small AI to build jobs and build productivity is enormous,” he said.

 

The World Bank boss cited an example of a healthcare clinic in Indonesia where a nurse could photograph a patient’s skin condition using a basic mobile phone and share it with a doctor or a locally developed AI tool for assessment.

 

 

“The technology could help the healthcare worker determine whether the patient needed treatment at the clinic or a referral to a specialist,” he said.

 

Banga said such applications could help connect local healthcare facilities to specialist knowledge that may otherwise be unavailable.

 

He also cited an agricultural platform being developed with Google’s help to connect farmers and cooperatives to improved seeds, fertilisers, crop insurance, credit and better prices for their produce.

 

He said the technology could enable farmers to identify crop diseases using mobile phones and obtain information to help them respond.

 

Banga said the World Bank’s jobs strategy focuses on five sectors: infrastructure, agriculture, primary healthcare, tourism and value-added manufacturing.

 

He said the sectors could generate locally relevant employment without relying solely on the traditional model of outsourcing jobs from advanced economies to developing countries.

 

“The first is infrastructure; it’s construction, but then what it enables: bridges, roads, airports, digitisation, electricity, water, but also human infrastructure in terms of skilling and education,” he said.

 

Banga said developing economies could also use AI to support small businesses and entrepreneurs by making technology and market access more affordable.

 

However, he said countries would need reliable electricity, digital infrastructure, appropriate skills, and policies that encourage investment to take advantage of the technology.

 

Banga said the aim is to use AI as a productivity enhancer in emerging markets, particularly in sectors that could expand employment and improve access to essential services.