New applications for unemployment benefits have stayed below 200,000 in a stretch rarely seen in modern history.
- Jobless claims fell by 2,000, to 197,000, last week, the Labor Department said Thursday morning.
Why it matters: It points to a remarkable stability on the "firing" side of the labor market, even amid a slower pace of hiring on the other side of the equation.
- That is helping to keep unemployment low, but it also masks a growing divide between Americans who have jobs and those struggling to find one.
What they're saying: "New jobless claims have been under 200,000 for a month now, an incredibly low level of layoffs for a sustained period of time that hasn't been seen since the 1960s," Navy Federal Credit Union chief economist Heather Long said.
By the numbers: The four-week average, which smooths out weekly volatility, fell to 198,000, its lowest level since the red-hot job market of 2022–2023.
The other side: Jobless claims don't capture every layoff. Some workers receive severance, don't qualify for benefits or find the application process too cumbersome.
- Still, when layoffs have surged across the economy, claims have surged with them — including during the recessions after the financial crisis and the pandemic. The absence of such an increase now is hard to dismiss.
- Other data tells a similar story: Announced job cuts fell 20% from a year earlier in September, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
The bottom line: Employers may be reluctant to hire, but they appear just as reluctant to fire — an unusual combination that, for now, keeps the labor market on steady footing.