The title of the budget was “Masters of Our Own Destiny,” but the truth was anything but.

The fiscal plan the Carney government revealed on Thursday relied, in large part, on world oil prices being higher.

Donald Trump’s war against Iran has not only bolstered the fiscal situation of the Government of Alberta, it has helped the government in Ottawa as well.

“The moment demands an ambitious plan to be masters of our own destiny,” Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne told the House of Commons as he rose to deliver his latest budget.

“Canadians know that we are living two extraordinary times. The rules we counted on no longer seem to hold. The global trading system that brought stability for decades is being rewritten. Wars and geopolitical competition are reshaping supply chains. Artificial intelligence is transforming our economies at breakneck speed.”

All of that is true, but at the end of the day, it’s still a matter of what governments bring in and what they spend.

Oil and taxes do the heavy lifting

Higher personal and corporate income tax revenues, along with stronger GST receipts, have helped the federal books. Budget 2026 still projects a deficit of $62.3 billion for this year, down from last year’s projection of a $65.4-billion deficit for this year, but overall, things are improving.

Still, program spending is expected to be up $14.3 billion this fiscal year.

Last year’s projected deficit of $78.3 billion came in at $39.3 billion due to higher government revenue and lower government spending. Perhaps, though, that was always the point, and the Carney government would not be the first to act in this way.

Promise one thing, deliver another and look like fiscal geniuses. It worked for Paul Martin for many years.

“We’re going to create a more prosperous, more independent Canada. This is the essence of being a master of our destiny,” Champagne told reporters during a press conference before the budget was delivered.

The latest Carney budget boosted spending on arts, culture and homelessness while adding tens of millions more in new expenditures.

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Immigration questions remain unanswered

For the second year in a row, the Carney government released its immigration levels plan within the federal budget. Conservative immigration critic Michelle Rempel Garner said that, once again, Carney’s government was putting corporate interests ahead of everyday Canadians.

“The Liberals’ plan sets permanent resident admissions at 380,000, and 370,000 new temporary residents in 2026. These are still among the highest levels in Canadian history, after the out-of-control years of 2022 to 2024 left the country no time to recover,” Rempel Garner said.

Rempel Garner points out that, in addition to the 380,000 permanent residents the Liberal plan accounts for, an additional 200,000 people who are in the country as temporary residents can qualify to stay here permanently. Last year, she said, the government planned for 385,000 new temporary residents and issued more than 950,000 temporary permits.

Canada’s housing starts are not keeping up with existing demand, our economy is shedding jobs rather than creating them, and in the middle of this, the Carney government appears intent on increasing immigration.

Even the 380,000 permanent residents in the current Liberal plan are well above the average over the last 10 or so years and are closer to the controversial Century Initiative, which seeks to increase Canada’s population to 100 million by 2100.

Big spending, little reform

One of the major issues that the Carney government does not answer is what will happen to the millions of people who are in Canada on temporary visas. There is no plan to ensure they leave the country, meaning Canada is about to import the debate over illegal immigration that the Americans have been having for the last several decades.

While the budget did offer some business tax credits, there was no real tax reform, which is what Canada needs to become competitive.

While this budget avoided mentioning Trump, it also avoided responding to him in terms of economic measures that would boost Canada’s economy in the ways we need to thrive.

blilley@postmedia.com