Mexico’s fastest-growing states aren’t the ones having the most children

The 2025 Intercensal Survey by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) has revealed a paradox in Mexico’s new demographic map: The states that have seen the greatest population growth are not those with the highest fertility rates.

Mexico reached a population of 130.9 million in 2025 – the country’s highest population in history. However, the population grew at an average annual rate of just 0.7%, its slowest pace in recent decades, with growth concentrated in states in the north and southeast of the country.

Which states lead population growth?

According to INEGI, Baja California Sur led in population growth with an average annual rate of 3.4%, followed by Quintana Roo at 2.2%. Querétaro recorded 1.7%, while Nuevo León and Coahuila grew by 1.5% annually.

Population growth in Quintana Roo is a result of its population dynamics: For years, the state has recorded growth linked to an influx of people from other states and the expansion of its urban and tourist areas, among other factors.

The same pattern is observed in Baja California Sur. Meanwhile Baja California, Querétaro and Nuevo León are attracting new residents thanks to urbanization, employment and internal migration.

In contrast, Guerrero and Veracruz lost population, shrinking by -0.6% and -0.3%, respectively.

Which states have the highest and lowest fertility rate?

The states topping the growth rankings are not the same ones showing the highest fertility rates. The Intercensal Survey revealed that Chiapas had the highest fertility rate at 1.8 children per woman, followed by Guerrero (1.6) and Durango (1.5).

The contrast is particularly striking in Baja California Sur and Quintana Roo. Despite ranking at the top for population growth between 2020 and 2025, their fertility rates were among the lowest in the country — 1.2 and 1.1 children per woman, respectively.

Mexico City has the second largest population of any entity or state, despite having the lowest fertility rate (0.8). According to the survey, its population stands at 9.1 million, just behind México state, which with 17.5 million inhabitants is the most populous state in the country.

With reports from Uno TV

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