THE MND SHEINBAUM INDEX™
Measuring Mexico’s president beyond the polls
MND Intelligence · Fifth edition
Welcome to the fifth edition of the MND Sheinbaum Index™, an eight-pillar index designed to give our readers balanced, data-driven insight into the current situation in Mexico across a range of areas under the leadership of President Claudia Sheinbaum.
In this edition of the index — which mainly uses data from the month of July — the headline number is 69.3, representing an improvement of 1.8 points compared to the previous score. This is the highest MND Sheinbaum Index™ to date. A detailed summary of the latest results appears below.
(Mexico News Daily)The MND Sheinbaum Index™ score has now improved in three consecutive months, increasing by 9.3 points in the period. An analysis of the index trend so far this year also appears below.
The publication of this MND Sheinbaum Index™ score comes just over 23 months into Sheinbaum’s presidency and a day after she delivered her second annual government report. Click here to read MND’s article on that report.
If you need a reminder on how the index works and how each of the eight equally weighted pillars is scored, please read the second edition of the MND Sheinbaum Index™.
Before we look in detail at the latest results and examine the index trend in the first half of 2026, here is a short guide to the significance of a Sheinbaum Index score:
- 85–100: Exceptional — administration performing at a high level across nearly all indicators.
- 75–84: Excellent — administration performing well across most indicators.
- 60–75: Quite good, but room for improvement — meaningful strengths, some areas of concern.
- 50–60: Mixed — passing marks overall.
- Below 50: Broad underperformance — more indicators below benchmark than above.
We saw the MND Sheinbaum Index™ score fall and rise in the period between February and July, but, as noted above, a consistent upward trend was maintained across the final three months of that interval.
Factors such as inflation of around 4.5% in each of March and April, as well as annual economic growth of 0.5% or lower in those months, caused the index score to deteriorate to 60 from 64.8 in February, when inflation was very close to 4% and economic growth was above 1%.
(Mexico News Daily)The 4.8-point month-over-month improvement in the index score in May was mainly due to inflation falling compared to April, homicides declining at a faster annual pace and economic growth improving. We saw all those things happen again in June, compared to May, resulting in an additional 2.7-point month-over-month improvement in the index score.
The additional 1.8-point improvement in July is due to a range of factors, including an additional decline in the inflation rate, an even larger reduction in homicides and stronger economic growth.
MND Sheinbaum Index™ pillars for July 2026Each pillar is given a stoplight color indicating a strong performance (green: a score above 9.4 out of 12.5), an average performance (yellow: 6.2-9.4) or a poor performance (red: below 6.2).
An upward-pointing arrow ⬆️ indicates that the pillar score improved compared to May. A downward-pointing arrow ⬇️ indicates a deterioration in the pillar score. A pause icon ⏸️ means there was no change in the pillar score compared to the previous month.
(Mexico News Daily)As you’ll see below, scores for six of the eight pillars improved in July compared to June. The scores for two other pillars declined.
🟢 ⬆️ INFLATION (12.2 out of 12.5)
In July, the inflation pillar was the top contributor to the overall index score for a third consecutive month.
Mexico’s annual headline inflation rate declined from 3.37% in June to 3.12% in July, the lowest rate for any month since May 2020 and just 0.12 percentage points above the Bank of Mexico’s 3% target.
The inflation pillar score consequently rose to 12.2 from 11.58 in June — a gain of 0.62 points.
🟢 ⬆️ LABOR POVERTY (10.25 out of 12.5)
The MND Sheinbaum Index™ updates in this edition with second-quarter labor poverty data that was published by the national statistics agency INEGI on Aug. 26. Based on that data, the labor poverty pillar score rose to 10.25 in July from 10.1 in June.
The labor poverty rate decreased 3.2 percentage points annually to 31.9% in the first quarter of 2026. That rate is higher than the 30.7% reading in the first quarter of 2026, but the score for this component of the pillar is unchanged as the year-over-year decline held steady at 3.2%.
The increase in the pillar score is due to an 8% annual increase in real incomes, up from 7.4% in the first quarter of 2026.
For a third consecutive month, this pillar was the second biggest contributor to the overall index score.
🟢 ⬆️ SECURITY (9.84 out of 12.5)
The pace of homicide reduction accelerated in July for a third consecutive month. The year-over-year decline in homicides was 34.8% in July, per data presented at Sheinbaum’s Aug. 11 press conference, up from 32.5% in June
The security pillar score consequently rose from 9.44 in June to 9.84 in July. A perfect score requires a 50% year-over-year decline in homicides.
🟡 ⬆️ ECONOMIC GROWTH (9.25 out of 12.5)
Year-over-year economic growth in July was 2.7%, according to preliminary data from INEGI — a significant improvement on June’s 1.7% reading.
The economic growth pillar score thus rose from 6.75 in June to 9.25 in July, an improvement of 2.5 points.
The improvement allowed the pillar to move to the cusp of green light territory. The July score for the economic growth pillar is easily the highest since we published the first MND Sheinbaum Index™ in April.
One factor that aided the solid economic growth figure in July is that Mexico’s export revenue increased almost 44% annually that month to reach a record high of US $81.4 billion.
🟡 ⬆️ APPROVAL RATING (8.56 out of 12.5)
Sheinbaum’s average approval increased slightly to 68.5% in July from 68% in June. Thus, the approval rating pillar score increased to 8.56 in July from 8.5 in June.
Per El Financiero’s July poll, Sheinbaum’s approval rating was 67%, a decline of one point compared to June. As there was no new Enkoll/El País/W Radio poll on Sheinbaum in July, we used the approval rating detected by the QM Estudios de Opinión/Heraldo Media Group survey. The president has a 70% approval rating, according to that poll, which was conducted between July 29 and Aug. 1.
🟡 ⬆️ EMPLOYMENT (7 out of 12.5)
Mexico’s unemployment rate was 2.9% in July, below the 3% neutral benchmark and unchanged from June.
The informality rate increased by 0.1 percentage points year-over-year in June, an improvement on the 0.2-point rise recorded in May. Mexico’s informality rate in July, at 56.2%, remained very high.
The improvement in the informality component score resulted in a slight increase in the pillar score to 7 in July from 6.88 in June.
🟡 ⬇️ TOURISM (6.91 out of 12.5 — This pillar has a one-month lag)
International arrivals increased 2.1% year-over-year in June, the data period used for July’s index.
That represents a slowdown from the 5.3% rise recorded in May, pulling the tourism pillar score down to 6.91 from 7.91 a month earlier.
The tourism result was disappointing given that Mexico hosted 10 of its 11 FIFA men’s World Cup matches in June. Mexican authorities had anticipated that as many as 5 million additional international tourists would come to Mexico during the quadrennial event.
🟡 ⬇️ BUSINESS CONFIDENCE (5.33 out of 12.5)
Mexico’s business confidence score, as measured by a monthly INEGI survey, was 48.2 in July, unchanged from June. That score is below the neutral benchmark of 50. In late 2024, when Sheinbaum was at the start of her six-year term, the business confidence score was around 52.
In July, the score for the foreign direct investment component of the pillar declined significantly as the Economy Ministry reported last week that FDI in Mexico in the first six months of 2026 increased 2.1% annually, a much slower pace of growth compared with the 10.4% year-over-year gain in the first quarter of the year.
The score for this component of the pillar consequently fell by more than 1 point. That decline is the reason why the overall pillar score fell to 5.33 in July from 6.36 in June.
What to watchThe next MND Sheinbaum Index™ will focus on the month of August.
Here are three things to look out for in the August Index:
- Inflation: Data for the first half of August indicates that the score for the inflation pillar will decline in the next edition of the index. INEGI reported on Aug. 24 that the annual headline rate was 3.26% in the first 15 days of August, up from 3.12% in July. If the inflation score does fall in August, it will be the first decline in five months.
- Economic growth: Mexico’s economy currently has some momentum, growing 1.9% annually in the second quarter of 2026 and 2.7% in July, according to preliminary data. Even higher growth in August would surprise many, but perhaps not President Sheinbaum, who has predicted that economic activity will pick up in the second half of 2026.
- Can Sheinbaum break 70? If the MND Sheinbaum Index™ score improves for a fourth consecutive month in August, it is very likely that the 70-point mark will be exceeded for the first time ever. Look out for the next edition of this index to find out whether the mark was surpassed or not.
Mexico News Daily
* MND acknowledges that President Sheinbaum does not directly control outcomes in all eight pillars. For example, global commodity prices and tariff decisions in Washington can affect Mexico’s inflation and growth rates. The MND Sheinbaum Index™ measures what is happening in Mexico on Sheinbaum’s watch.
The post The MND Sheinbaum Index™ for July 2026: The president sees near 10-point gain since April appeared first on Mexico News Daily