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U.S. President Donald Trump’s grip on power will almost certainly be shattered on Tuesday as Americans head to the polls.

The midterm elections serve as a presidential report card and from the looks of it, the commander-in-chief is about to get a failing grade.

With his popularity at record-setting lows, grave concerns over the economy, tariffs and his handling of the war with Iran, it is not a great time to be a Republican. Polls have shown even deep red states like Kansas are suddenly up for grabs. It’s the same across the board.

Early voting is a game changer

“It’s hard to make predictions,” former New York Post political editor Gregg Birnbaum told The Toronto Sun . “For starters, the whole concept of election day has been reversed and it will be a factor.”

Birnbaum – who also ran the political desks at the New York Daily News , Miami Herald , CNN and NBC– said early voting and mail-ins have been a game changer.

“Forty million people have already voted. I think the early voting benefits the side with the most enthusiastic voters and right now, that’s the Democrats,” he said, adding that bad weather on Tuesday may keep people away from the voting booth. “This hurts the Republicans. Right now, the perception of a blue wave is getting bigger.”

The number one issue is the economy, Birnbaum said, citing the respected non-partisan Cook Report.

He added that “three-quarters of Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction.” The Iran war has also hammered Trump and the GOP’s prospects.

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Underestimation of Trump support

And while the situation appears dire for the Republicans, Birnbaum is not counting out the party or the President.

“I’m not betting on this (a Democratic victory),” he said, adding that betting on sports was a safer option. “If I was betting I wouldn’t touch this race with a 10-foot pole.”

Part of the issue is that in the 2016 and again in the 2024 presidential elections, Trump’s support was undercounted, Birnbaum said. That hidden vote could be worth “a couple of points” on election day.

In recent days, Trump – predictably – is asking voters to treat the midterms as if he, The Donald, were on the ballot.

“Donald Trump made the mindless decision to make the election about himself and his own ego,” Birnbaum explained, adding it’s mind-boggling given Trump’s basement-dwelling popularity.

Right now, the polls point to Trump being a lame duck.

After Tuesday’s election, all eyes will be on the 2028 contest, Birnbaum said. Although hesitant to make predictions, he thinks it’s a safe bet the Democrats will win at least one house.

Will DSA terrify voters?

However, it isn’t exactly clear sailing for the Dems either. The party will almost certainly capture Congress and maybe the Senate as well.

But Birnbaum said the vote would be more of a blowout if it wasn’t for the Democratic Socialists of America seeping into the party’s mainstream.

The DSA have fronted middle-America terrifying policies such as abolishing prisons and the police, Medicare for all and blocking aid to Israel. A number of their members are expected to be elected on Tuesday, but crowd pleasers at liberal arts colleges hit differently on Main Street.

Birnbaum said the DSA’s strategy will be to normalize some of their wackier ideas in the run-up to 2028.

“They’re going to use that platform to push their plan for 2028. Success will depend on whether the American public buys it,” he said, adding that AOC is beloved by the far left-wing fringe of the party and could be the standard-bearer the next election cycle. “There’s really no one else there.”

“I think you’re going to see the DSA and its affiliate followers out strong in 2028. But are more moderate Democrats ready for the challenge? The DSA feels this is their time.”

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Florida the state to watch

Birnbaum said for political aficionados, a good place to read the tea leaves and determine which way the wind is blowing will be the race for governor and senator in Florida.

Polls close in the Sunshine State at 7 p.m.

Formerly a swing state, Florida has been firmly in the Republican camp in recent electoral cycles. Now, the governor’s race to replace the GOP’s Ron DeSantis is within the margin of error.

“If one or both go Democrat, that’s a sign that the Republicans are in very deep trouble,” he said. “Florida is also one of the fastest counting states, so we’ll know fairly early which way the wind is blowing.”

Birnbaum is hoping that the vote offers up some clarity, whichever side prevails.

“This all leaves us with a potentially divided government and then it will be a stalemate for the next two years. And remember, Trump still has a veto,” Birnbaum said.bhunter@postmedia.com@HunterTOSun