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Canadians may have noticed a ramp-up in political rhetoric south of the border. That’s no accident. The U.S. is currently in the run-up to midterm elections — and this year’s vote could have a serious impact on Canada.
What are midterms?
U.S. midterm elections are votes held at the midpoint of a president’s four-year term. They are typically held on the first Tuesday in November. Midterm votes typically determine who controls the executive branch of the U.S. federal government: the Senate and the House of Representatives. They also include state and local votes. This year, 35 Senate seats out of 100 will be contested, while all 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election. Currently, the Republicans (U.S. President Donald Trump’s party) hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, and a slim 218-212 majority in the House.
Who’s going to win?
Impossible to say until voting day, but most polls have the Democrats winning big. According to Forbes , for example, the Dems lead the Republicans in the House by 8.9% and lead in seven key Senate races. Polymarket says the Dems have a 95% chance of taking control of the House and a 74% chance of taking control of the Senate. NPR says Americans’ chief ballot box issues include cost of living (i.e. food and gas prices), and preserving democracy.
Impact on Canada
The results of this year’s midterms could have a profound impact on Canada for good or ill, as it’s been embroiled in a bitter trade war with the U.S. that has wreaked economic havoc on both sides of the border. Since trade talks failed in August, Trump’s White House has imposed tariffs on billions of dollars in Canadian products, and Canada has responded in kind with tariffs of its own.
A Democrat victory could be great news for Canada. The Dems have pledged to rescind all of Trump’s tariffs within their first 100 hours of taking office, but they would need a veto-proof Congressional majority to do so — a two-thirds majority vote in both chambers. So unless they win big, Trump, who rules his congressional Republicans with an iron fist, could stomp on any Democrat-led move to end his tariffs.
Trump hints at trade deal
Trump’s trade war with Canada is unpopular with both Democrats and Republicans — and he knows it. That might have something to do with the president’s recent remarks suggesting that a trade deal is coming soon. Canada is an unusually large factor in these midterms, with many key races taking place in states that are on or near the Canadian border — most notably Michigan, Maine, Alaska and Ohio — where border tariffs have had a major impact.