October, often called ‘Uptober’ in crypto markets because of past performance, is one of the year’s most anticipated months, and this edition followed that trend, as BTC had seen three consecutive months in the green leading up to it.

Reality, though, was different as usual, and data shows that BTC tanked by over 7.3%. Here’s why and what we can expect in November.

Uptober Failed

Ever since the July 1 bottom of under $58,000, bitcoin went into an impressive three-month green-only streak, surging by 7.27% in July, 25.05% in August, and 6.37% in September. This was the first such three-month period during a perceived bear market, which prompted numerous analysts to call its end and to declare the beginning of the subsequent bull phase.

October indeed started on the right foot, with BTC surging from under $83,500 to over $87,000 in just a few days. Although it was halted there at first, it returned to $87,000 on October 5 and 6. However, that was the last time the asset would trade this high. By October 9, it had already crumbled by almost $7,000 and dumped to $80,400.

The key $80,000 support managed to hold the descent, but bitcoin eventually dipped below it on October 15 after the release of the CPI and PPI data for September, with both metrics confirming that inflation was higher than expected. The bulls stepped up at this point and helped BTC recover to $85,000 by October 21.

Another rejection followed, though, and the cryptocurrency ultimately slumped below the $80,000 support and tanked to a six-week low of $76,100 on October 30. This substantial leg down was driven by the massive $6.3 billion hack at Binance and the ETF outflows that day, which turned the entire month red.

Although bitcoin rebounded to over $77,000 as the month ended, it still saw a 7.32% decline, doubling down on last week’s 3.95% October drop. Before that, BTC had finished six consecutive Octobers well in the green: five of them were with double-digit gains.

BTCUSD November 1. Source: TradingView What Does November Hold?

Last year’s November was painful – Bitcoin exacerbated the losses that began after the mid-October crash and nosedived 17.5%. November 2024, on the other hand, was well in the green, posting a massive surge of 37.36%.

November used to be one of BTC’s best months in its early days, especially from 2012 until the bull market in 2017. The tide turned in later years, with controversial moves, including a 36% drop in the 2018 bear market and a massive 42.41% jump in 2020.

With the upcoming US mid-term elections at the start of the month and countless reports suggesting that the strikes against Iran will resume immediately after they conclude, it’s safe to assume volatility will remain high.

Bitcoin Monthly Returns. Source: CoinGlass

 

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