What's next for Jalen Duren and the Pistons? Here are 4 sign-and-trade possibilities

Pistons general manager Trajan Langdon said this about his disgruntled center Jalen Duren during media day earlier this week: “Regardless of which decision he does make, he will be a Detroit Piston.”

What Langdon is referring to is the fact that Duren is holding out from training camp and didn’t show up at media day because of a contract dispute. The latest reports, courtesy of Sam Amick and Hunter Patterson from The Athletic, are that Duren has received a five-year, $200 million contract offer from Detroit. But he feels disrespected after the front office initially suggested including monthly weigh-in clauses for his deal. Duren has even considered signing a one-year, $9.6 million qualifying offer that would allow him to be an unrestricted free agent in 2027 and provide a one-year no-trade clause. He would become the first player in league history to accept the qualifying offer after earning All-Star and All-NBA honors.

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Maybe Langdon isn’t lying and they are keeping Duren no matter what. But it’s worth considering the possibility that Duren won’t be a Piston next season given how weird and ugly this saga has become.

Early this summer, it was widely reported that the Kings had interest in acquiring Duren for their own center, Domantas Sabonis. Those reports quickly died down once it became apparent that Detroit had no interest in Sabonis. However, the Kings still have interest and there have been other teams that have poked around about acquiring Duren. ESPN’s Marc Spears earlier this week cited four teams with interest in a sign-and-trade for Duren: the Bucks, Hawks, Kings, and Wizards.

A sign-and-trade involving Duren would be particularly complicated because of base-year compensation rules. Long story short, on a big new contract, Duren would count at half his first-year salary for Detroit’s salary-matching purposes, but at his full salary for the team acquiring him. That makes matching salaries way more complicated, but the Pistons have multiple mechanisms to help make a deal.

First, they have a $15 million traded player exception from sending Isaiah Stewart to the Memphis Grizzlies earlier this year, and a $5.2 million traded player exception from sending Marcus Sasser to the Dallas Mavericks. Those exceptions would allow the Pistons to absorb more salary in return, making matching easier.

Second, they have the ability to guarantee Duncan Robinson’s $16 million contract for the season. That deal doesn’t become fully guaranteed until early January, but if they guarantee it now, they can include it in any discussions at its full amount. This would be useful in the event that the Pistons need to send out more salary.

With those tools, Detroit could legally make a trade with all four of the teams that have reported interest in Duren. Here’s a look at those possibilities:

Bucks get: Jalen Duren

Pistons get: Myles Turner, Jaime Jaquez 

I would love this for Detroit. I’m not a believer that Duren and Ausar Thompson can coexist. The Pistons just signed Thompson to a big extension (5 years, $155 million), but both he and Duren are non-shooters. There’s no indication that either of them will start splashing 3s either, which kills spacing around Cade Cunningham.

Turner’s knockdown 3-point shooting could be more beneficial to Cunningham and Detroit’s offense. Turner and John Collins wouldn’t be as strong defensively as Duren and Stewart were last season, but perhaps the offensive gains would outweigh any losses on defense.

Absorbing Jaquez into the $15 million exception would give the Pistons another valuable ball-handler who brings size. Alternatively, an elite shooting 2-guard in AJ Green could work in place of Jaquez.

Hawks get: Jalen Duren

Pistons get: Onyeka Okongwu, Aaron Wiggins, Corey Kispert 

Okongwu’s 3-point shooting ability and defensive versatility could make him more beneficial to the Pistons than Duren, especially since a 3-and-D wing player in Wiggins would be coming back as well.

Detroit would suddenly become a team that can play five-out, with both Okongwu and Collins leading Detroit’s frontcourt. It would be an inverted story from last year, when Duren couldn’t space the floor and Stewart didn’t really garner the respect of defenses.

Taking Kispert into the $15 million exception would be necessary to make the deal work, and he could provide depth with his shooting.

Kings get: Jalen Duren, Ron Holland, Paul Reed, Chaz Lanier

Pistons get: Domantas Sabonis, Maxime Raynaud, Dylan Cardwell

Sabonis makes $45.4 million, which means the Pistons would have to send out more salary in this example. There are different combinations of players that could work, but this is the one I’ve landed on. Holland looks like a gritty defender for Detroit but hasn’t shown much development offensively. Lanier is redundant with the other shooters on the team. And as feisty as BBall Paul is coming off the bench, this deal would bring back three bigs.

Cardwell is a rebounding machine, and Raynaud offers 3-point shooting, straight-line driving, and rim protection — they’d absorb into each of the two traded player exceptions. And Sabonis, for all his defensive flaws, is an offensive hub. He can shoot a little bit, he’s a talented facilitator, and he can score inside. Sabonis has also never shared the floor with a player of Thompson’s caliber on defense, so he could be more protected than ever on that end.

Wizards get: Jalen Duren, Duncan Robinson, Ron Holland, Chaz Lanier

Pistons get: Anthony Davis

This is the deal that would break social media the most if it were to happen. Would the Pistons really want to get 11 years older going from Duren to Davis? Davis is by far the most talented player that might even be available for Duren, though his lack of durability is severely concerning. But when he’s on the court, he’d be a clear-cut upgrade with his superior defense, plus he’s far more skilled offensively and a proven playoff performer. So it’s a conversation that’d have to happen at the least.

Detroit shouldn’t be opposed to keeping Duren. But even putting aside his playoff failings last year against Orlando and Cleveland, last season was also just the first in his career in which he played at a consistently high level. In his previous three seasons, he was hot and cold. You never knew what version of him you were going to get. So, I’m supposed to believe that after he gets paid over $200 million, he’s not going to revert back to that? I’d be fearful if I were the Pistons front office, and while this is an unsourced take, I’d imagine the unwillingness to give him the full five-year, $287 maximum contract is less about his playoff struggles and more about the entirety of his first four years of his contract. That’s precisely why they tried to put weight clauses into his contract. And that’s why other teams aren’t head over heels, putting loads of draft picks on the table to get him, like the Lakers did for Walker Kessler.

Duren is only 22 years old, and there’s nothing precluding him from reaching an even higher level of upside in the years to come. He was already an All-NBA player this year. He even started taking some pull-up jumpers and doing more work off the dribble in the open floor. Maybe there’s more to his game that’ll be unveiled over the years to come. If he’s declining the $200 million that the Pistons are offering, then very clearly he has some confidence in what he can become.

But there’s a difference between betting on what is and what could be. And in the current version of Duren, the Pistons already have worries about his consistency, his weight, and his fit with Thompson. They’d be happy to have him back at the right number, but those concerns just don’t go away especially given how this entire situation has played out.

The Pistons just won 60 games and Cade is entering the prime of his career. The pressure is on. Langdon is saying that Duren will be in Detroit regardless of what he decides. But if Langdon botches this decision, he won’t be in Detroit for long.