Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro's chances of being a presidential contender in 2028 are riding on his winning reelection in a landslide Tuesday.

  • New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's future hinges on whether a fellow progressive can carry a swing state, for once.
  • California Gov. Gavin Newsom has to show that his congressional redistricting gambit worked for Democrats — and he needs to beat back a state wealth tax proposal supported by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

Driving the news: Democrats eyeing White House runs have spent the past year preparing to emerge from Tuesday's midterms with momentum, and an argument for a 2028 candidacy. They want Democrats to do well — but to each, some races are especially important.

  • Some have focused their time and money on particular contests for ideological reasons, or a desire to show strength in their home states.
  • Others have hedged their bets across the nation, so that Tuesday is unlikely to be a huge victory or a significant defeat.

Here's how the top potential Democratic contenders for president have placed their bets in this week's elections — and what success or failure will look like for them.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

A great night: AOC has wagered just about everything on the Senate race in Michigan, where she's said that a win by progressive Abdul El-Sayed would "break open the entire political calculus in America" and show that "anybody can win anywhere."

  • She's weighing whether to run for president or the Senate, and much of her electability argument for a national campaign hinges on an El-Sayed victory.

Progressives are desperate to establish that one of their own can carry a presidential battleground state. Ocasio-Cortez has contributed $1 million to help El-Sayed and stumped for him at several events.

  • An El-Sayed victory "would prove to the country, and the world, that competent, courageous progressive populists can win in the most competitive swing states in America," said Bhavik Lathia, a left-wing strategist from Michigan.
  • "The implications for 2028 would be enormous."
  • AOC would get bonus points Tuesday if other progressives she's supporting — such as House candidate Randy Villegas in California and Senate candidate Angie Nixon in Florida — win their swing-seat races.

Worst-case scenario: If El-Sayed loses, many progressives think AOC would be less likely to run for president.

  • That's why she's widely viewed as having more on the line Tuesday than any other potential Democratic contender for president, followed by Shapiro.
Josh Shapiro

A great night: Shapiro needs to win so big Tuesday that it makes Democratic presidential primary voters see his technocratic "get shit done" brand of governing as the party's best bet to take down the GOP in 2028.

  • Shapiro is less known nationally than many 2028 hopefuls, and that has been by choice. He's largely focused on Pennsylvania this year, even as would-be rivals for president crisscrossed the country.
  • A blowout in America's biggest swing state could help him stand out.
  • A good night for Shapiro would be defeating Republican Stacy Garrity by double digits and carrying three Democratic House candidates — Janelle Stelson, Bob Brooks and Paige Cognetti — across the finish line to defeat Republican incumbents.
  • He'd have a great night if his coattails were so long that he pulled a fourth Democratic House hopeful, Bob Harvie, to victory — taking down GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, who's known for surviving difficult electoral cycles.
  • Shapiro would get extra credit if he helped Democrats win a trifecta in Harrisburg for the first time in decades by flipping control of the state Senate.

Worst-case scenario: If only one or two Democrats in his state flip House seats or he wins by less than 10 points, Shapiro's setup for 2028 would fall short.

Andy Beshear

A great night: Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, who moonlights as chair of the Democratic Governors Association, put his chips this year on helping his party take control of a majority of the nation's governorships.

  • Beshear would earn bragging rights if Democrats flip the two governors' seats needed to do that. He's eyeing the races in Iowa, Ohio, Georgia and Nevada.
  • "I am laser-focused on these governors' races," he told us, arguing that the results will help determine what's possible in the 2028 presidential contest.
  • "Rob Sand wins Iowa, Iowa's in play. When Amy Acton wins Ohio, Ohio's in play," Beshear said.

Worst-case scenario: Beshear made enemies among some Latino Democrats this year when the DGA rebuffed calls to invest heavily in Gina Hinojosa's campaign for Texas governor.

  • If Hinojosa loses to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott by a razor-thin margin or pulls an upset, Beshear's decision-making will come under heavy scrutiny — and he could have a problem with some Latino leaders in a 2028 campaign.
Gavin Newsom

A great night: Newsom won over many MS NOW moms and "resistance" liberals across the country when he responded to President Trump's push to create more GOP House seats in other states by fighting back with a successful voter proposition to do the same in California.

  • His goal has been to gain five Democratic seats from the change to help Democrats take back the House. That's his bar to clear Tuesday.
  • Some political insiders now think Democrats could gain 20 or more House seats across the country, so Newsom's contribution might not be as decisive as once thought.
  • Newsom would score a political win if a proposed billionaire wealth tax on the ballot in his home state, which he opposes, fails.

Worst-case scenario: If California voters approve the tax or Democrats flip fewer than five House seats there, it would diminish Newsom's California clout.

Jon Ossoff

A great night: A long-running knock against Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff has been that he won his seat in 2021 by riding his fellow Peach State Sen. Raphael Warnock's coattails.

  • Ossoff has the chance this year to prove he doesn't need Warnock, who isn't on the ticket. He's on his way to doing just that, with polls showing him comfortably leading GOP challenger Mike Collins.
  • But to have a truly great night, Ossoff needs to show that he has enough sway in his state to help pull Democratic gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms to victory.

Worst-case scenario: If Bottoms were to lose, Democrats say, Ossoff would be even less likely to leave the Senate for a presidential run, since Georgia's governor has the power to make a temporary appointment if a senator steps down.

  • Ossoff, for his part, has said he has "zero interest" in a 2028 bid. But Barack Obama made similar comments before jumping into the 2008 race.
Kamala Harris

A great night: Former Vice President Kamala Harris has rallied voters to fight back against GOP redistricting and a recent Supreme Court decision on the Voting Rights Act that threatens Black representation in Congress.

  • A huge uptick in turnout among Black voters — especially in the South — could strengthen the argument that Harris should be the nominee.
  • Harris also has stumped for several Black Democrats running for governor and Senate this cycle, and their success could give her a boost.

Worst-case scenario: Harris hasn't hitched her political fortunes to any specific contenders in this cycle. But a loss by female or Black candidates such as Bottoms could deepen some Democrats' skepticism that someone other than a white man could win the presidency in 2028.

Pete Buttigieg

A great night: Buttigieg has spread his chips around this election cycle, endorsing more than 100 candidates and stumping in person for more than half of them.

  • That's helped Buttigieg cement his brand as a well-liked Democrat who methodically explains issues and can campaign anywhere in America.

Worst-case scenario: Buttigieg's midterm strategy has been low-risk, low-reward — so he could end up as an afterthought Tuesday.